人工智能技术变革对国际贸易的影响

人工智能技术的快速发展正催生第四次工业革命,可能引发全球价值链深度重构和世界经贸格局重大变革。世界主要经济强国将发展人工智能技术作为争夺新一轮产业竞争优势的重要战略抓手。本文基于全球价值链视角研究人工智能技术变革对国际贸易的影响,我们发现人工智能技术变革可能推动国际贸易规模扩大,提升服务贸易份额,并促进国际贸易交易模式平台化、小宗化,可为中小企业创造更多参与国际贸易的机会。然而,人工智能技术变革也可能通过降低企业劳动力需求从而对我国等发展中国家的出口拉动型增长模式造成严重的潜在威胁。为应对人工智能技术变革,我国应部署并强化对人工智能产业发展的政策支持,加快培育制造业国际竞争新优势,大力推动先进制造业与现代生产性服务业深度融合发展,全面促进"中国制造"攀升全球价值链中高端。     

新疆农村产业融合发展研究

现运用面板回归模型结合产值贡献度的方法评价了新疆农村产业融合度,结果表明,新疆农业与农产品加工业融合度、农业与农业服务业融合度均较低。通过地理信息可视化表达发现,新疆农村产业融合度且存在明显的区域差异。最后,结合新疆农村产业融合发展所面临的困境,提出了需要完善农业教育服务体系;培育区域特色品牌;加强对各种利益联结方式的监督引导等建议。     

The challenge of Chinese state‐affiliated multinationals in benefiting from foreign subsidiary knowledge transfer: A criticism of light‐touch integration

Acknowledging the sharp growth of Chinese state‐affiliated multinationals and their strategic asset‐seeking investments abroad, this study investigates the effects of headquarters' home‐country political ties on the multinational‐wide benefits gained from subsidiary knowledge transfer in Chinese multinationals. It also looks at how these effects are mediated by organizational distance and social integration between headquarters and subsidiary. Based on a survey of 177 subsidiaries of 99 Chinese multinationals, we find that headquarters' political ties trigger organizational distance and hinder social integration between headquarters and foreign subsidiaries and these, in turn, hamper the potential benefits that Chinese multinationals derive from subsidiary knowledge transfer. This study identifies new challenges related to political ties and light‐touch integration in gaining benefits from subsidiary knowledge transfer.     

基于分层线性模型的开发区工业用地集约利用影响因素研究

研究目的:针对以往工业用地集约利用影响因素研究仅考虑单一层次且多集中于宏观、中观尺度的问题,尝试从微观企业尺度分析企业、开发区两层因素对工业用地集约利用的影响。研究方法:综合评价法和分层线性模型。研究结果:江西省开发区企业土地集约利用水平总体偏低,在地域分布上呈现出赣北赣东赣西赣中赣南的特征,与开发区土地集约利用水平地域分布一致;开发区企业用地集约度受到企业和开发区两个层次影响。企业层次主要受企业规模、企业所有制、行业类型、研发投入和初始基础设施影响;开发区层次主要受开发区级别、工业用地率和土地利用集约度影响,并且通过影响企业资本类型、研发投入和初始基础设施的系数对企业用地集约度产生加成效用。研究结论:分层线性模型有效解决了开发区企业土地集约利用影响因素的结构分层和嵌套问题,揭示了开发区企业土地集约利用影响因素与机制,研究结果为研究区有针对性的制定土地集约利用政策提供一定依据。     

集中连片特困地区扶贫产业发展的规模特征及其经济效率评价——以武陵山片区恩施自治州为例

[目的]在扶贫开发战略中成长起来的特色产业已经成为贫困地区经济发展和农民脱贫致富的支柱产业,特色产业的规模和经济效率直接决定着贫困地区脱贫致富能力。[方法]文章以茶叶、蔬菜代表武陵山片区湖北省恩施自治州扶贫产业,利用集中度指数、扩张弹性系数、单位面积的产值能力和产量能力以及单位产量的产值能力等指标进行扶贫产业发展的规模特征及其经济效率评价。[结果]“十一五”期间以来武陵山片区扶贫产业发展的产业地位逐渐提高、规模扩张优势显著、规模收益递增、投入规模扩张率高于产出规模扩张率、资源配置效率不断提高,比较经济效率差距持续扩大。[结论]扶贫产业亟待根据产业发展的生态化、集聚化和融合化等趋势,在规模扩张中强化特色产品的品质建设和效率优势品种生产专业化程度、提高生产技术水平以及完善产业化组织及其能力建设,提高扶贫产业的经济效率和致富能力。     

The role of university Knowledge Transfer Offices: Not just commercialize research outputs!

While there is a prevailing rich body of studies on the role of university knowledge transfer office (KTO) in the commercialization process as part of the Third Mission, research on its role in community engagement activities is relatively neglected, even as funding agencies and policy makers conceive these as instrumental to sustaining social and economic development. This article focuses on the role of university KTO in supporting, facilitating or undertaking Third Mission community engagement activities. Drawing on data from the annual Higher Education Business and Community Interaction survey for the years 2007–2012, this paper empirically explores the relationship between a range of Third Mission activities by university KTO and performance of three key business-community services – provision of consultancy, provision of continuous professional development courses (CPD), and leasing of facilities and equipment (FE). It emerges that the routines of developing strategic plan and creating spin-off are positively associated with all types of community knowledge transfer (CKT) activities. Further, the routines of establishing partnerships with local and regional bodies, and licensing are positively related to CPD and FE, respectively. The article is concluded with implications for theory, practice, policy, and suggestions for future research.     

The State as Both Regulator and Player: The Politics of Transfer of Development Rights in China

The conventional argument that the introduction of transfer of development rights (TDR) shifts the power of land use regulation from the state to the market is increasingly under challenge. In China, the state's grip on land is reinforced through TDR, in which the state is both regulator and player. This state-dominated form of TDR affects China in three ways. First, competing aspirations of different scales of government complicate how TDR is implemented. Although the central state promotes TDR to maintain a national balance of arable land, some local states instrumentalize it to expand their landed basis of accumulation. Secondly, TDR tends to benefit the state but not its people. It may increase the fiscal income of the sending government and lessen the land shortage of the receiving government, but sometimes at the expense of the interests of land users without land ownership. Thirdly, given the state's deep involvement in TDR programs, the key for China's TDR to protect arable land lies not so much in clear property rights or a fully fledged market as in effective checks and balances regarding the state's powers over TDR. These three observations attest to the embeddedness of TDR in the local political economy.     

产业政策对企业研发创新的影响研究——基于促进创新型产业政策"信心效应"的视角

信心是影响产业政策实施效果背后的重要无形因素。本文从“信心效应”的新视角出发，基于2012—2017年中国A股上市公司面板数据，以《中国制造2025》为一项准自然实验，使用双重差分法研究促进创新型产业政策对企业研发创新的影响。研究结果表明：促进创新型产业政策的颁布能够通过“外部信心效应”和“内部信心效应”促进受支持企业研发投入增加；通过与受支持企业自身的营运性信心和社会性信心叠加，信心效应的影响分别出现U型与倒U型的差异；信心效应在促进创新型产业政策对受支持企业研发产出数量和实质性的影响中都发挥了作用。研究结论不仅丰富了相关文献，也为新时期产业政策的制定与实践以及企业行为调整提供了有益的启示。     

基于指数平滑法的G市主要货物流通量预测

随着国家发展西部地区的力度不断加大,贵州省作为西部地区省份也乘着这股力度不断在各方面完善自己,G市作为贵州省的主要城市之一近几年在经济、政治等方面都有显著的提高。物流的发展在一定程度上可以带动一个地区产业的发展,物流的构架在一定程度上可以反映出一个地区产业的构架。通过对G市物流运营现状的分析,发现G市的产业结构的特性,然后,通过分析建立符合G市物流发展的预测模型,最后结合模型和分析对G市物流发展提出合理化建议。     

中国住宿和餐饮业在产业链上位置测度及其动态变迁

文章运用产业上游度测度模型，测度了我国住宿和餐饮业在产业链上位置，考察了其在产业链上位置的动态变迁。总体来讲，住宿和餐饮业在全球产业链上和国内产业链上的位置都向产业链上游移动。从封闭经济到开放经济，住宿和餐饮业的产业上游度存在着较大波动，2002—2010年全球产业上游度都大于其国内产业上游度；2012—2017年则相反，住宿和餐饮业国内产业上游度波动幅度要大于其全球产业上游度波动幅度。住宿和餐饮业净出口变化方向与其国外产业上游度变化方向基本相同，净出口增加对其国外产业上游度上升有促进作用。住宿和餐饮业全球产业上游度变化趋势与其国内产业上游度变化趋势基本相似。总体来讲，现阶段住宿和餐饮业国内产业上游度增长速度要大于其全球产业上游度增长速度。